NFL Picks Washington @ Eagles 1/26/25

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This post is for tracking purposes only, sharing a high-level summary of plays without diving into the detailed data and methodology behind these predictions. Everyone should conduct their own research before risking hard-earned money.


Game Preview and Injury Report​

Matchup: Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Commanders +6 (-110) | Eagles -6 (-110)
Total: 47 (Over -105, Under -115)
Moneyline: Commanders +225 | Eagles -275

Injury Report:
Commanders:

  • Key Injuries: Sam Cosmi (Out), Daron Payne (Questionable), Marshon Lattimore (Out), Dante Fowler Jr. (Out)
  • Notable Players Impacted: Offensive line depth and defensive interior.
Eagles:
  • Key Injuries: Britain Covey (Out), Byron Young (Out), Cam Jurgens (Questionable).
  • Notable Players Impacted: Minimal impact on starters.

Play Types​

Best Bet:

Bet: Eagles -6 (-110)
Confidence: 92%
Hit Probability: 92%

Reasoning:
  • Eagles’ elite rushing attack (55.93% rush play rate) is well-suited to exploit the Commanders’ 30th-ranked run defense.
  • Commanders are missing key defensive pieces, most notably Daron Payne (knee, finger) and Marshon Lattimore, further weakening their ability to slow down Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley.
  • Eagles have consistently covered at home in favorable matchups, winning by 7+ points in 4 of their last 5 home games.
Suggested Bet Size: 3 units


Game Score and Over/Under Bet:

Predicted Final Score: Eagles 27, Commanders 20
Total Points: 47
Bet: Under 47 (-115)

Reasoning:
  • Eagles rank 1st in opponent yards per play (4.8) and opponent points per play (0.297), making it difficult for the Commanders to sustain scoring drives.
  • Commanders' offense is heavily reliant on the run (48.35% rush play rate), but game script and injuries to their O-line limit upside.
  • Both teams rank in the top 10 in defensive 3rd down efficiency, contributing to longer drives and reduced scoring opportunities.
Suggested Bet Size: 1.5 units


Leans:

  1. Saquon Barkley Over 124.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
    • Confidence: 85%
    • Barkley faces a defense allowing 138.9 rushing yards per game (30th), with Washington’s defensive front weakened by injuries.
  2. Jalen Hurts Under 195.5 Passing Yards (-115)
    • Confidence: 83%
    • Commanders rank 5th in opponent passing yards per game and are effective at limiting explosive plays.
  3. Terry McLaurin Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
    • Confidence: 82%
    • Likely to benefit from a trailing game script and a high target share against a vulnerable Eagles secondary (21st in opponent pass yards).
  4. Commanders Team Total Under 21.5 (-135)
    • Confidence: 85%
    • Eagles allow just 17.6 points per game (1st in the league).

Additional High-Confidence Bets:

  1. Anytime TD Scorers:
    • Saquon Barkley (-300): The Eagles’ red-zone focal point with consistent volume.
    • A.J. Brown (+140): Excellent matchup against a depleted Commanders’ secondary.
  2. Alternate Spread: Eagles -9.5 (+140)
    • Confidence that the Eagles’ run game dominance and defensive pressure will lead to a comfortable win.

Parlay Options

Parlay 1 (Conservative - Safe Returns):

  • Eagles ML (-275)
  • Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (-300)
  • Under 47 Total Points (-115)
  • Jalen Hurts Under 195.5 Passing Yards (-115)
    Payout: +250

Parlay 2 (Moderate Risk, Balanced):

  • Eagles -6 (-110)
  • Saquon Barkley Over 124.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
  • Terry McLaurin Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
  • Under 21.5 Commanders Total Points (-135)
    Payout: +650

Parlay 3 (High Risk, High Reward):

  • Eagles -9.5 (+140)
  • Saquon Barkley Over 142.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
  • Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-135)
  • DeVonta Smith Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
    Payout: +1200

Parlay 4 (Longshot):

  • Eagles -9.5 (+140)
  • Saquon Barkley Over 124.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
  • A.J. Brown Anytime TD (+140)
  • Commanders Team Total Under 20.5 (+105)
    Payout: +1800

Closing Notes​

The BEST BET for this game is Eagles -6 (-110), supported by matchup advantages, injuries, and superior metrics on both sides of the ball.

Leans include props and team totals, all backed by statistical trends and situational value.

The Parlays provide various risk levels with high-confidence legs, offering opportunities for safe returns or longshot payouts.

As always, bet responsibly, and good luck!
 

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  1. Eagles -6 (-110): Win (+2.73 units)
  2. Under 47 (-115): Loss (-1.5 units)
  3. Saquon Barkley Over 124.5 Rushing Yards (-115): Loss (-1 unit)
  4. Jalen Hurts Under 195.5 Passing Yards (-115): Loss (-1 unit)
  5. Terry McLaurin Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115): Loss (-1 unit)
  6. Commanders Team Total Under 21.5 (-135): Win (+0.74 units)
  7. Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (-300): Win (+0.33 units)
  8. A.J. Brown Anytime TD (+140): Win (+1.4 units)
  9. Eagles -9.5 (+140): Win (+1.4 units)

  1. Parlay 1 (Conservative): Loss (-1 unit)
  2. Parlay 2 (Moderate Risk): Loss (-0.5 units)
  3. Parlay 3 (High Risk): Loss (-0.25 units)
  4. Parlay 4 (Longshot): Loss (-0.25 units)

6-7 (+1.83 units)
 

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Commanders Team Total was 23 @Air23
 

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